As I settle in to analyze the pivotal Game 2 matchup between TNT and San Miguel, I can't help but feel this is where the series truly begins. Having watched countless PBA finals over the years, I've learned that championship series often pivot on these second games, especially when one team has already stolen homecourt advantage. That's exactly what happened in Game 1, where TNT pulled off a stunning 109-96 victory that sent shockwaves through the league. What makes this particularly fascinating is that Johnedel Cardel emerged victorious in his first game since being appointed as Titan Ultra head coach - a debut that couldn't have gone better if he'd scripted it himself.
Now the real chess match begins. San Miguel coach Jorge Gallent faces immense pressure to adjust, while Cardel must prove his opening victory wasn't just beginner's luck. From my perspective, having covered Cardel's coaching journey since his playing days, there's something special happening with this TNT squad. They're playing with a fresh energy that reminds me of those Rain or Shine teams he used to pilot. The numbers from Game 1 tell part of the story - TNT shot 48% from the field and dished out 28 assists compared to San Miguel's 21 - but what the stats don't show is the psychological advantage they've gained. When you beat a powerhouse like San Miguel in their first finals game under a new coach, it creates belief. And belief can be more dangerous than any offensive scheme.
The matchup I'm most intrigued by features June Mar Fajardo going up against TNT's interior defense. In Game 1, Fajardo still put up his typical monster numbers - 22 points and 15 rebounds - but what stood out to me was how TNT made him work for every single point. They threw multiple bodies at him, with Kelly Williams and Justin Chua taking turns being physical with the Kraken. Williams in particular impressed me with his veteran savvy, drawing two crucial offensive fouls against Fajardo in the third quarter that completely shifted momentum. At 37 years old, Williams shouldn't be able to handle Fajardo, but basketball isn't always about physical advantages. It's about heart, positioning, and understanding angles - areas where Williams excels.
What worries me about San Miguel's approach in Game 1 was their overreliance on Fajardo in the post. I counted at least six possessions where they simply dumped the ball into him without any real offensive movement. Against disciplined defensive teams, that becomes predictable. TNT's help defenders were consistently digging down, forcing 17 San Miguel turnovers that led to 24 points the other way. If I'm coaching San Miguel, I'm insisting on better perimeter movement and more pick-and-roll actions to create cleaner entry passes. They need CJ Perez and Marcio Lassiter to be more aggressive attacking closeouts instead of standing around watching the post action.
The backcourt battle between Jayson Castro and Chris Ross could very well decide this game. At 37, Castro is defying Father Time in ways that still amaze me. His 18 points and 7 assists in Game 1 don't fully capture his impact - it's the timing of his bursts that makes him special. I noticed him conserving energy defensively, then exploding offensively during critical stretches. Meanwhile, Ross struggled mightily, shooting just 2-of-9 from the field. What concerns me about Ross's game recently is his hesitation to take open threes. There were multiple possessions where he caught the ball with space but opted to drive into traffic instead. That hesitation disrupts San Miguel's offensive flow and makes them easier to defend.
From my experience covering both these point guards throughout their careers, I believe Castro has the psychological edge right now. He's been in these situations countless times and understands how to manage playoff games better than almost anyone in PBA history. Ross needs to rediscover his defensive intensity and three-point shooting if San Miguel hopes to even the series. I'd like to see him apply more full-court pressure on Castro early to test the veteran's conditioning.
What fascinates me about Cardel's coaching approach is how he's utilizing Roger Pogoy. Rather than running set plays for him, he's allowing Pogoy to operate in space and find creases in the defense. Pogoy's 26 points in Game 1 came largely within the flow of the offense - backdoor cuts, transition opportunities, and spot-up threes. This contrasts sharply with San Miguel's more structured approach involving Jeron Teng, who seems confined to specific spots on the floor. I'd love to see Gallent give Teng more freedom to create, similar to how Cardel is using Pogoy.
The bench production tells another crucial story. TNT's second unit outscored San Miguel's 42-28, with Glenn Khobuntin providing unexpected offensive punch with 14 points. What impressed me most about Khobuntin was his defensive activity - he contested 9 shots according to the advanced stats I reviewed, despite playing only 18 minutes. San Miguel desperately needs more from their reserves, particularly from Mo Tautuaa, who managed just 6 points in 22 minutes. At 6'8" with his athleticism, he should be dominating second units rather than blending in.
As we approach Game 2, the adjustments will determine everything. From my vantage point, San Miguel must solve TNT's switching defense, which effectively neutralized their pick-and-roll game. They need more weak-side action and better ball movement to create higher-quality shots. For TNT, the challenge will be maintaining their defensive intensity while avoiding foul trouble against Fajardo. They caught a break in Game 1 with Fajardo attempting only 6 free throws - I expect that number to double in Game 2.
Having witnessed numerous coaching debuts throughout PBA history, what strikes me about Cardel's first game is how composed his team looked despite the magnitude of the moment. That composure typically trickles down from the coach, and if he can maintain that calm demeanor throughout this series, TNT has a real chance to pull off what many considered impossible before the finals began. The momentum is clearly with them, but as I've learned over years covering this league, momentum shifts faster than June Mar Fajardo can establish post position. What remains to be seen is whether Cardel's magical start continues or whether San Miguel's championship pedigree will ultimately prevail.
