As I sit down to analyze Dennis Smith Jr.'s NBA journey, I can't help but draw parallels to what we witnessed in the recent PBA game where RR Pogoy sat out for TNT after that explosive start to Game Two. That moment when a key player steps away from the action always reminds me how fragile an athlete's trajectory can be - something I've observed repeatedly throughout my years studying basketball careers. Dennis Smith's path has been particularly fascinating to track, from his explosive debut to the current crossroads he faces in his professional journey.
I remember watching Smith's rookie season with the Dallas Mavericks back in 2017-18, and frankly, I was blown away by his athleticism. The kid averaged 15.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds as a 20-year-old rookie - numbers that placed him firmly in the conversation for future stardom. That spectacular dunk against the Cavaliers during his debut season still stands out in my memory as one of the most explosive displays of raw athleticism I've seen from a rookie point guard in recent years. His 32-point performance against the Pelicans that same season demonstrated exactly why many analysts, myself included, believed he could develop into a franchise cornerstone. The vertical leap measurements from the combine - his 48-inch vertical remains one of the highest ever recorded - suggested he had the physical tools to dominate the game.
What's interesting, and somewhat disappointing from my perspective, is how his career trajectory shifted after that promising start. When Luka Dončić arrived in Dallas, Smith's role diminished significantly, and I've always felt the fit wasn't right for his development. The trade to New York in 2019 marked a turning point that many young players struggle to navigate. His numbers dipped to 5.5 points and 2.9 assists per game during his Knicks tenure, and I noticed his confidence seemed to waver during that period. The basketball analytics I've studied show that players who experience such significant role changes early in their careers often struggle to regain their footing, and unfortunately, Smith appeared to follow that pattern.
His stint with Detroit showed flashes of the player he could still become - I particularly remember his 12-point, 4-assist performance off the bench against Miami where he displayed improved decision-making. But consistency remained elusive, and that's always been the challenge with Smith's game. When Portland gave him an opportunity last season, he put up 7.5 points and 3.8 assists in 38 games, showing he could still contribute at the NBA level, though not at the star level we initially anticipated.
Looking at his current situation, I'm genuinely curious about where he lands next. At 26 years old, he's reached what I consider a critical juncture - old enough to provide veteran leadership but young enough to still develop his game. His career field goal percentage of 39.5% needs improvement, but his defensive potential remains intriguing. Having watched hundreds of games throughout my career, I believe Smith could thrive in the right system - perhaps as a backup point guard on a team that values pace and transition offense. His steal rate of 1.5 per 36 minutes suggests he could develop into a defensive specialist if he commits to that role.
The recent news about RR Pogoy sitting out for TNT actually got me thinking about how injuries and roster decisions can dramatically alter careers. Smith has dealt with his share of injuries - the wrist issue in 2018 and various minor ailments that have limited his availability. In my professional opinion, his future likely lies as a rotational player who can provide energy and athleticism off the bench. Teams like Charlotte or San Antonio could benefit from what he offers - organizations in transition that can afford to take calculated risks on former high draft picks.
What many fans don't realize is that the margin between being a star and fighting for roster spots is incredibly thin in the NBA. Smith's PER of 13.8 last season places him in the lower tier of NBA point guards, but I've seen players with similar metrics reinvent themselves later in their careers. The development of his three-point shot - currently at 31.2% for his career - will be crucial for his longevity in today's spacing-oriented game.
If I were advising him, I'd suggest focusing on becoming a defensive stopper while simplifying his offensive game. We've seen similar transformations work for players like Patrick Beverley and Marcus Smart - neither were offensive stars but carved out valuable roles through defensive intensity. Smith has the physical tools to follow that path if he embraces it fully. The NBA's evolution toward positionless basketball might actually benefit someone with his athletic profile, allowing him to guard multiple positions while contributing in transition.
Ultimately, Dennis Smith Jr.'s story reminds us that basketball careers rarely follow linear paths. The explosive potential we saw in his rookie season may not have materialized into stardom, but I believe he still has meaningful contributions to make in the right situation. His journey serves as a compelling case study in player development, roster fit, and the unpredictable nature of professional sports. As we've seen with numerous players throughout NBA history, sometimes it just takes finding the right system and role to unlock a player's true value - and I haven't given up on Smith finding that match yet.
