As a longtime Badgers fan and college football analyst, I've spent the better part of two decades studying Wisconsin's football program, and I can confidently say this year's UW Madison football schedule presents both tremendous opportunities and significant challenges. When I first looked at the 2023 slate, my immediate reaction was that this might be the most balanced schedule Wisconsin has faced in recent memory - not overwhelmingly difficult, but with just enough tricky matchups to keep things interesting throughout the season. The season kicks off on September 2nd against Buffalo at Camp Randall, which should provide a solid warm-up game before the real tests begin. What really excites me about this schedule is how it builds gradually, allowing the team to find its rhythm before the crucial conference matchups.
The non-conference schedule includes what I consider to be the most intriguing early-season game - the September 16th showdown at Washington State. This cross-country trip always makes me nervous, as West Coast games have historically been challenging for Big Ten teams. The time zone difference, combined with what's expected to be a revamped Washington State offense, could provide an early indicator of whether this Wisconsin team has the mental toughness to handle adversity on the road. I've circled this game on my calendar because I believe it will tell us more about the team's character than any of the home games combined. Following this, the Big Ten schedule opens with what I'm calling the "make or break" stretch - Purdue at home, followed by Rutgers on the road, and then the crucial October 14th matchup against Iowa.
Now, let me share why I'm particularly fascinated by the Iowa game. Having attended this rivalry for fifteen consecutive years, I can tell you there's something special about the way these two teams match up. The last six meetings have been decided by an average of just 4.3 points, with Wisconsin taking four of those contests. What makes this rivalry so compelling, in my view, is the philosophical clash - Wisconsin's traditionally powerful rushing attack against Iowa's stingy defense. This year, with both teams returning experienced offensive lines, I'm expecting another classic, low-scoring battle that likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes in the fourth quarter. From my perspective, this game often determines the Big Ten West division champion, and I don't see that changing this season.
The most challenging portion of the schedule undoubtedly comes in November, beginning with what I consider the season's pivotal matchup against Ohio State on November 4th. Let me be perfectly honest here - Wisconsin hasn't beaten Ohio State since 2010, and that streak likely continues this year. However, I'm looking at this game differently - it's not about winning so much as competing respectably and avoiding the kind of demoralizing blowout that could derail the remainder of the season. The following week brings Nebraska to Camp Randall, which based on recent history should favor the Badgers, but I've learned never to take this rivalry lightly, especially with Nebraska's renewed focus under their current coaching staff.
What really stands out to me about this schedule is how it sets up for a strong finish if the team can navigate the Ohio State game without significant emotional or physical toll. The final three games - against Northwestern, Minnesota, and the season finale - present what I believe to be very winnable contests, particularly the border battle against Minnesota. Having witnessed 25 of these rivalry games in person, I can attest that records rarely matter when Paul Bunyan's Axe is on the line. The Gophers have stolen victory from Wisconsin's grasp three times in the last decade when the Badgers were heavily favored, so I'm cautiously optimistic but never comfortable heading into this matchup.
Reflecting on the reference knowledge about sticking to roots, I'm reminded of what has made Wisconsin football successful historically - establishing the run, controlling the clock, and playing fundamentally sound defense. In my analysis, this schedule perfectly sets up for Wisconsin to do exactly that. The early-season games against weaker opponents allow the offensive line to gel, the mid-season matchups test their mettle, and the November games play directly into Wisconsin's traditional strength - wearing down opponents in cold weather. I've always believed that Wisconsin's identity as a physical, run-first team gives them an advantage as the season progresses and weather deteriorates, and this schedule appears to capitalize on that strength.
Looking at the broader picture, I project Wisconsin to finish the regular season with either 9 or 10 wins, with the determining factors being the Washington State road game and the Iowa matchup. In my estimation, splitting those two games would position Wisconsin nicely for a New Year's Six bowl bid, while winning both could potentially put them in conversation for the College Football Playoff, though I consider that a long shot given the current landscape. What gives me confidence is the returning production at key positions and a schedule that, while challenging, doesn't feature back-to-back games against elite opponents except for that tough November stretch.
As I reflect on previous Wisconsin teams I've covered, this schedule reminds me most of the 2017 campaign, where the Badgers navigated a similar balanced schedule to an undefeated regular season. While I'm not predicting perfection this year, the parallel gives me optimism that this team could exceed expectations if they stay healthy and maintain their identity throughout the grind of the season. The key, in my view, will be avoiding letdown games against perceived inferior opponents - something that has plagued Wisconsin teams in the past. If they can maintain focus week to week and stick to their philosophical roots, I believe this schedule sets up beautifully for another successful campaign in Madison.
